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BUSINESS • 18/09/2026 07:48 PM

Malaysia’s 2026 Export Growth May Exceed 22 Pct Forecast -- MBSB IB

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 18 (Bernama) -- Malaysia’s full-year export growth could exceed the current 22 per cent forecast in 2026 if the strong momentum continues in the coming months, MBSB Investment Bank Bhd (MBSB IB) said.

In a note today, MBSB IB said import growth could also exceed its 16 per cent forecast, compared with 6.0 per cent in 2025. It expects export growth of 22 per cent, versus 6.6 per cent in 2025.

“Strong demand for E&E and technology products will continue to drive external demand, but the outlook remains susceptible to several risks such as supply disruptions, elevated input costs, weaker final demand and renewed trade tensions,” it said.

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MBSB IB said Malaysia’s total trade growth accelerated to 43.4 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in August 2026 from 37.2 per cent in July, extending its double-digit expansion to the 12th consecutive month.

It said export growth strengthened to 45.5 per cent y-o-y (July: 38.0 per cent), beating market and our expectations. The pick-up in exports was supported by stronger domestic exports (46.0 per cent y-o-y; July: 36.9 per cent) and re-exports (43.3 per cent y-o-y; July: 41.1 per cent).

“Imports also grew faster at 41.1 per cent y-o-y (July: 36.3 per cent), led by higher purchases of intermediate and capital goods. The latest data indicate that Malaysia’s external trade momentum remained strong despite softer monthly trade values,” it said.

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MBSB IB said outbound shipments continued to be driven by electrical and electronics (E&E) products, which rose 66.5 per cent y-o-y and contributed 28.1 percentage points, or about 62 per cent, to total export growth in August.

“Other manufactured products (10.4 percentage points), liquefied natural gas (1.6 percentage points), petroleum products (1.5 percentage points), machinery, equipment and parts (1.4 percentage points), manufactures of metal (1.3 percentage points) and optical and scientific equipment (1.1 percentage points) also supported the expansion in August.

“Exports of palm oil and palm oil-based products, however, fell 15.5 per cent y-o-y (July: +13.5 per cent) due to weaker demand from major markets, namely India and Kenya,” it said.

On a monthly basis, MBSB IB said exports declined 1.3 per cent month-on-month (m-o-m) after rebounding 8.8 per cent in July, while imports fell 4.7 per cent m-o-m following a 5.5 per cent increase in July.

“As imports declined faster than exports, the trade surplus widened to RM28.1 billion from RM22.5 billion in July. For the first eight months of 2026, total trade expanded 27.0 per cent y-o-y, with exports and imports rising 31.2 per cent and 22.4 per cent, respectively.

“The cumulative trade surplus widened to RM198.7 billion, an increase of 127.6 per cent y-o-y from RM87.3 billion in the first eight months of 2025, contributing positively to economic growth,” it said.

-- BERNAMA


 

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