Investment Banks Maintain Positive 2026 GDP Growth Forecasts Of 4.8-5.4 Pct
KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 14 (Bernama) -- Investment banks remained positive on Malaysia’s economic growth outlook for 2026, forecasting gross domestic product (GDP) growth of between 4.8 and 5.4 per cent.
RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB IB) has maintained its 2026 GDP growth projection at 5.4 per cent, supported by resilient domestic demand and sustained strength in electrical and electronics (E&E) exports.
The investment bank said the robust 1H 2026 growth of 5.8 per cent, together with the stronger-than-expected 6.0 per cent growth in the second quarter (2Q) of 2026, further reinforce its constructive view.
“While we remain vigilant to external risks, including lingering geopolitical uncertainties and tariff policies, Malaysia remains well positioned to navigate these challenges.
“This is supported by Malaysia’s diversified economic structure, deep integration into regional and global supply chains, and ongoing efforts to diversify export markets and expand its product offerings,” it said in a note today.
Similarly, MBSB Investment Bank Bhd (MBSB IB) projected Malaysia’s 2026 GDP growth at 5.1 per cent from 4.5 per cent previously, driven by the robust growth in 1H 2026.
“The stronger-than-expected growth mainly reflects the upside boost from a pick-up in external trade, on the back of strong demand for E&E products as well as petroleum products.
“Overall, we expect the rise in domestic demand would continue to anchor Malaysia’s sustainable economic growth, underpinned by increased tourism activity and higher income with inflation generally under control,” said MBSB IB.
Meanwhile, CIMB Investment Bank Bhd (CIMB IB) maintained its GDP forecast at 4.8 per cent for 2026, supported by net exports and a mining rebound on base effects, rather than domestic demand, which eased to 5.1 per cent from 5.2 per cent in 1Q 2026.
“We expect growth to moderate in 2H 2026 on high base effects from 2H 2025, while the ongoing West Asia conflict weighs on domestic sentiment and activity,” the bank said.
On the monetary policy front, RHB IB and CIMB IB has maintained their calls for the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) to remain unchanged at 2.75 per cent.
“Monetary policy is likely to remain data dependent in upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meetings, with decisions hinging on economic growth prospects and underlying inflation momentum,” added RHB IB.
-- BERNAMA