Analysts Project Malaysia's Exports To Grow Robustly In 2026, Driven By Stronger Demand
KUALA LUMPUR, July 20 (Bernama) -- RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB IB) has upgraded Malaysia’s export growth for 2026 to 21.7 per cent from the previous projection of 15.3 per cent, underpinned by stronger-than-expected year-to-date export performance, with exports expanding by 27.5 per cent.
In a note today, the investment bank said the upward revision was also supported by the continued strength in the electrical and electronics (E&E) sector amid the ongoing technology upcycle and artificial intelligence (AI)-driven investment cycle.
In addition, the stronger trade surplus of RM83.9 billion in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q 2026), compared with RM15.3 billion in the second quarter of 2025 (2Q 2025), should also provide support to the final 2Q 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) estimate.
Looking ahead, RHB IB expects Malaysia to remain well-positioned to navigate external challenges, supported by its diversified economic structure, deep integration into regional and global supply chains, and ongoing efforts to diversify export markets and expand its product offerings.
While RHB IB remains broadly positive on Malaysia's export outlook for 2026, several downside risks warrant close monitoring.
“Prolonged geopolitical tensions and persistently elevated oil prices could weigh on global growth and trade activity by increasing production, transportation and operating costs.
“This, in turn, could dampen external demand for Malaysia's exports, particularly in export-oriented manufacturing industries that are deeply integrated into global supply chains,” it noted.
The bank also said the outlook for E&E exports remains constructive, underpinned by robust global semiconductor demand driven by advancements in AI, cloud computing, data centres, electric vehicles and industrial automation.
Another investment bank, MBSB Investment Bank Bhd, meanwhile expects Malaysia’s exports to grow strongly by 18.9 per cent in 2026 (2025: 6.6 per cent).
This would be driven mainly by stronger demand for technology products and greater demand for commodity-related products such as petroleum products and liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Nevertheless, it said exports continue to be exposed to downside risks such as supply disruptions, elevated costs and price pressures, potentially weaker demand, and the risk of tighter trade rules, mainly by the United States.
“We also upgraded our import growth forecast, projecting imports to grow by 13 per cent this year (2025: 6.0 per cent) on the back of a sustained rise in domestic economic activities,” MBSB said in a note.
Malaysia’s trade performance strengthened in June 2026, growing by 44.7 per cent to RM340.9 billion from RM235.6 billion a year earlier on sustained growth in both exports and imports, according to the Statistics Department (DOSM).
DOSM said exports expanded 45.4 per cent to RM177.9 billion and imports rose 43.9 per cent to RM163.0 billion, with the trade surplus surging by 64.9 per cent to RM14.9 billion during the month under review.
-- BERNAMA