Hold Multinational Military Stress Tests In Melaka Strait To Better Prepare For Geopolitical Crises - Analyst
By Harizah Hanim Mohamed
KUALA LUMPUR, July 15 (Bernama) -- Countries bordering the Strait of Melaka must embark on a multinational defence cooperation by conducting stress tests and simulations in the strait to better prepare for potential geopolitical crises, an analyst said.
Geopolitical and international relations analyst Dr Wan Zokhri Wan Idris said such preparedness is crucial as any disruption to the Strait of Melaka will have regional and global ramifications for seaborne trade. He noted that while there is multinational cooperation among the littoral countries, comprising Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore, their collaboration has mainly been in combating piracy, human trafficking, and smuggling by sea.
"We should extend (the cooperation) to include scenarios involving military escalation in the South China Sea," he told Bernama in a recent interview.
Such preparedness is important as any disruption to the Strait of Melaka would have far-reaching implications for regional and global trade. In the event a crisis escalates, he said many shipping lines would be prompted to reroute vessels, resulting in longer transit times, higher freight costs, and disruptions to global supply chains. Energy flows would become less efficient, transportation costs would increase, and deliveries would take longer.
"It would also add further vulnerability as the waters surrounding Indonesia are considered shallow and not suitable for large-scale shipping. This will definitely increase the time needed to transport goods and services and hinder the growth of Southeast Asian economies," he added.
Comparing the Strait of Melaka with West Asia, Wan Zokhri, who is based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), said the strait is located in a relatively stable region, while relations among countries in West Asia, particularly involving Iran and the Gulf states, operate under a different geopolitical dynamic from those among Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Singapore.
However, he said recent events in West Asia underscore the importance of preparing for low-probability but high-impact scenarios before they materialise.
Wan Zokhri said experience during the COVID-19 pandemic also showed that coordination among governments, port operators, shipping companies, and security agencies remained limited, with many entities continuing to work individually and in silos. "The concern was also raised by industry players on how data was not shared between agencies, causing difficulties in generating concerted efforts when crises break out," he added.
Beyond non-traditional security threats, Wan Zokhri said greater attention should also be given to emerging risks such as cybersecurity, which could affect port operations and vessel navigation. "Modern ships rely on digital navigation charts, automated identification systems (AIS), and GPS. Cyber intrusions can manipulate these systems to spoof locations, cause collisions, or assist seaborne criminals in hijacking vessels and evading security patrols," he added.
From another perspective, Wan Zokhri said prolonged instability in West Asia, including the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, has increased the strategic importance of the Strait of Melaka regardless of the situation. "This is because the strait is the only connector between Asian and Western economies. When the Strait of Melaka is undermined, it will definitely send the global economy into shock,” he continued.
The general observation among the maritime community is that, while the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Melaka are often discussed separately, in practice they anchor a single economic corridor, especially for the energy transported to sustain East Asia’s industrial production. "On the other hand, this has led China to push its Belt and Road Initiative through rail connectivity across the continent as an alternative to the vulnerabilities of international waters," he noted.
Looking ahead, Wan Zokhri said no single country possesses the full capabilities to safeguard the strait, which stretches from Thailand to Singapore.
"We could not segment states' involvement to be limited to their national waters. Long-term security and resilience in the Strait of Melaka require governance involving all littoral states. In this case, success can only be achieved through collaboration among the countries bordering the strait," he added.
-- BERNAMA